The Federal Government of Somalia’s last indirect election has brought back a trio who were not new to their perspective positions, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, the Speaker of the House, Sheikh Adan Mohamed Nur, and the Speaker of the Senate, Abdi Hashi Abdullahi.
Although the President and the Speaker of the House were not incumbents, the Speaker of the Senate came back as an incumbent. The three leaders started working closely together immediately after their election. Both chambers have passed legislation without any delays so far and have worked closely with the administration to amend the constitution to reflect a new political reality in the country, universal suffrage.
The bicameral parliament is working relentlessly to pass a Draft Law to establish an Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission. Both houses are working overtime to pass these laws at the request of the President. The country is planning to hold municipal elections in June 2025, which will form the three parties that will compete in the subsequent elections. Since time is of the essence, the administration is working against time to get it done by the end of this month.
The Northern Region of Somalia, Somaliland has conducted its general election on November 13th of this year and Puntland State has held its elections on January 8th, 2024. The southmost region of Jubaland is working to hold elections before the end of the year. Both Puntland and Jubaland have suffered relations with the federal government and indicated that they will not be part of the current political process if the federal government continues to pursue direct elections without any improvements in the security situation of the country.
This leaves the rest of the remaining member states with the option to join forces with the federal government. HirShabeele, Galmudug, and Southwest State along with Benadir have agreed to implement a one-person one-vote election.
The departure of Puntland and Jubaland from the political dialogue with the federal government and the federal government’s decision to go ahead with the planned elections creates a major problem for the country. The situation is dire and none of the sides are willing to compromise on the matter.
A new reality emerges, as the country faces the choice between an indirect election as it has done previously or the risk of political division by going ahead with direct elections with half of the country voting in the general elections while the other half sits out. This is a paradigm shift in Somalia’s fragile democracy and a forming of new political power dynamics.
As a result, Puntland and Jubaland are left with no choice but tojoin forces and create a new coalition to counter Mogadishu. How will the international community respond to this news? Will the international community intervene and bring all the parties together or will it watch the country slip back into a failed state situation again?
